Time Series Modelling of Three-Dimensional Temperatures across Nigeria Using Data from Cosmic

Abstract

This study examined time series modelling of three-dimensional temperatures across Nigeria using data from COSMIC. A preliminary check on the time series plot of the data showed seasonal variation suggesting that the series was not stationary. Time Series methodology was employed. In order to test the stochastic fluctuation of daily temperature, the researcher used the Q-Q plot to examine the normality of the difference of the temperature. Similarly, daily temperature fluctuations exhibit randomness and continuous change as temperatures vary throughout the day. From the graphical analysis it can be observed that there will be an upward trend of temperature with time from the 2021 to 2030. Hence, there will be a positive relationship between temperature and time for the same period of time. From the graph also, it showed that 98% of temperature can be accounted for by time. The result suggests that the predicted temperature is increasing over the years. From 2006 to 2020, there was a strong negative and significant relationship between temperature and altitude. Also, the mean temperature is increasing in many stations. Hence, the temperature exhibit elements of time-varying characteristics over the study period. At the end, it was recommended that studying and carefully applying mathematical models could help track future rise in monthly temperatures.