EFFECTS OF SPACE WEATHER PARAMETERS ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCE

Abstract

Space weather is responsible for the time varying condition in the solar system. This variability in the solar system can lead to direct or indirect impacts on earth including Agricultural produce. It is important to understand the impact of space weather on agricultural produce as it reduces the risk associated with food shortage and low agricultural productivity. Previous studies have shown that extreme heat from solar radiation can cause reduction in crop yield. This study analyzed the effects of space weather parameters on agricultural produce. Vector Autoregressive package in R-programming statistical software was used to model cereal crop yield data for a period of 2006-2016. The VAR model was simplified to obtain yields for each crop: Rice, Millet, Sorghum and Maize. The results showed that crop yield increases with decrease in space weather parameters and vice-versa. This means that extreme space weather conditions can cause low crop yield leading to a negative impact on crop yield and vice- versa. The observed yields were compared with model fit and data gave crop yield values for years 2007(192.9400 Metric Tonnes), 2009(196.4600 Metric Tonnes), 2011(192.2600 Metric Tonnes) and 2012(196.6700 Metric Tonnes) for Sorghum, years 2008 (63.6600 Metric Tonnes), 2010(64.1800 Metric Tonnes), 2011(65.2200 Metric Tonnes) and 2014(64.4300 Metric Tonnes) for Millet, years 2008 (146.9500 Metric Tonnes), 2009 (149.9400 Metric Tonnes), 2015(174.4000 Metric Tonnes) and 2016 (175.3400 Metric Tonnes) for Maize and years 2006 (277.7300 Metric Tonnes), 2009 (289.6600 Metric Tonnes) and 2013(146.6800 Metric Tonnes) for Rice respectively. The comparisons between the obtained data and the model result suggest a good agreement, this means that the model accurately described the effects of space weather on crop yield.