Effect of Atmospheric Parameters in Implementation of Agricultural Activities in Kebbi State, Northwestern Nigeria

Abstract

This research presents comprehensive analysis of meteorological parameters and their effects on crop productivity in Kebbi State from 2014 to 2023. The results are presented through statistical analyses, correlation studies, temporal trends, and predictive modeling. Generally, rainfall reveal strongest positive correlations across all crops, with rice resulting higher dependence (r = +0.68, p<0.001) which explains 46% of rice production variability. However, temperature remained consistent revealing negative correlation soya beans most sensitive to temperature stress with threshold effects observed above 35°C. Relative humidity acts as moisture stress buffer and showed moderate positive correlations essentially beneficial for rice and soya beans cultivations. Crop specific seasonal responses revealed that, rice most responsive to rainy season conditions, millet shows significant dry season resilience while potato shows moderate seasonal adaptation. The seasonal production analysis showed at peak rainy season: 50.4% increases in rice production compared to dry season, 27.6% increase in maize production, 75.9% increase in millet production, 71.6% increase in soya-beans production, 44.7% increase in potato production. Climate trend analysis shows gradual temperature increase observed with corresponding slight decrease in rainfall amounts relative humidity patterns followed rainfall trends while wind patterns remained relatively stable. Production trend analysis, rice production fluctuates but overall stable trend, maize showed consistent upward trajectory (+18.4% over decade) adaptation evidence in post-2018 recovery patterns. Forecast interpretation revealed all crops show positive growth trajectories (2024-2028), soya-beans exhibit highest growth potential with projections assume to be continuation of current agricultural practices.